TrueCar Releases Analysis of July Industry Sales

Jul 29th, 2022 13:00 EST

A shift in incentives appears to be an industry response to growing affordability concerns

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,119,712 units in July 2022, down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13 million, down 15% from July 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 975,597 units, down 14% from a year ago and down 1% from June 2022.

Average New Car Incentives

"This month we're seeing the first response from the industry to address affordability concerns, by increasing incentives for the first time in nearly 20 months," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Even before the latest bump in federal interest rates, consumers were facing rising challenges to vehicle affordability. As rates go up, consumers are faced with increased monthly payments, even as average transaction prices remain flat."

And while inventory remains close to historically low levels, there is some emerging distinction between these levels among various OEMs.

"OEMs that have inventory and supply are weathering the drop in sales differently than the ones that don't," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "There may be long term implications for brands that are low on inventory, as those brands could lose some loyal customers."

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

  • Total sales for July 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for July 2022 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 7% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 54% from last year but up slightly from June 2022.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 12% from a year ago and about the same as June 2022.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 15% from a year ago at 13 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for July 2022 are expected to reach 3 million, down 17% from a year ago and up 4% from June 2022.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% compared to June 2022 at 5.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.5%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months, both up about one month since last July.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,767

28,845

28,744

3.2 %

7.2 %

3.6 %

3.6 %

Daimler

31,514

24,977

32,494

26.2 %

31.0 %

-3.0 %

-3.0 %

Ford

156,105

118,917

151,182

31.3 %

36.3 %

3.3 %

3.3 %

GM

182,874

197,697

199,679

-7.5 %

-3.9 %

-8.4 %

-8.4 %

Honda

68,090

135,542

71,048

-49.8 %

-47.8 %

-4.2 %

-4.2 %

Hyundai

60,374

73,680

67,597

-18.1 %

-14.9 %

-10.7 %

-10.7 %

Kia

61,188

70,099

65,142

-12.7 %

-9.4 %

-6.1 %

-6.1 %

Nissan

51,648

80,456

55,122

-35.8 %

-33.3 %

-6.3 %

-6.3 %

Stellantis

136,936

142,065

134,456

-3.6 %

0.1 %

1.8 %

1.8 %

Subaru

41,351

50,125

43,175

-17.5 %

-14.3 %

-4.2 %

-4.2 %

Tesla

46,298

26,200

42,757

76.7 %

83.5 %

8.3 %

8.3 %

Toyota

165,758

225,917

167,823

-26.6 %

-23.8 %

-1.2 %

-1.2 %

Volkswagen Group

53,093

55,754

51,034

-4.8 %

-1.1 %

4.0 %

4.0 %

Industry

1,119,712

1,291,775

1,144,772

-13.3 %

-10.0 %

-2.2 %

-2.2 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

28,850

27,125

27,855

6.4 %

10.5 %

3.6 %

3.6 %

Daimler

29,608

23,969

30,559

23.5 %

28.3 %

-3.1 %

-3.1 %

Ford

117,280

88,396

113,284

32.7 %

37.8 %

3.5 %

3.5 %

GM

151,946

172,980

158,839

-12.2 %

-8.8 %

-4.3 %

-4.3 %

Honda

65,528

132,472

68,503

-50.5 %

-48.6 %

-4.3 %

-4.3 %

Hyundai

59,775

69,555

66,897

-14.1 %

-10.8 %

-10.6 %

-10.6 %

Kia

56,625

67,700

60,147

-16.4 %

-13.1 %

-5.9 %

-5.9 %

Nissan

41,953

69,278

43,310

-39.4 %

-37.1 %

-3.1 %

-3.1 %

Stellantis

112,485

127,443

110,028

-11.7 %

-8.3 %

2.2 %

2.2 %

Subaru

40,014

49,301

41,734

-18.8 %

-15.7 %

-4.1 %

-4.1 %

Tesla

43,475

26,200

40,150

65.9 %

72.3 %

8.3 %

8.3 %

Toyota

144,205

209,320

147,224

-31.1 %

-28.5 %

-2.1 %

-2.1 %

Volkswagen Group

51,321

53,919

49,193

-4.8 %

-1.2 %

4.3 %

4.3 %

Industry

975,597

1,176,284

989,504

-17.1 %

-13.9 %

-1.4 %

-1.4 %

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

916

1,720

889

-46.7 %

-44.7 %

3.1 %

3.1 %

Daimler

1,905

1,008

1,935

89.1 %

96.4 %

-1.5 %

-1.5 %

Ford

38,825

30,521

37,898

27.2 %

32.1 %

2.4 %

2.4 %

GM

30,929

24,717

40,840

25.1 %

29.9 %

-24.3 %

-24.3 %

Honda

2,561

3,070

2,545

-16.6 %

-13.4 %

0.7 %

0.7 %

Hyundai

599

4,125

700

-85.5 %

-84.9 %

-14.5 %

-14.5 %

Kia

4,563

2,399

4,995

90.2 %

97.5 %

-8.6 %

-8.6 %

Nissan

9,695

11,178

11,812

-13.3 %

-9.9 %

-17.9 %

-17.9 %

Stellantis

24,451

14,622

24,428

67.2 %

73.7 %

0.1 %

0.1 %

Subaru

1,338

824

1,441

62.2 %

68.5 %

-7.2 %

-7.2 %

Tesla

2,823

-

2,607

8.3 %

8.3 %

Toyota

21,554

16,597

20,599

29.9 %

34.9 %

4.6 %

4.6 %

Volkswagen Group

1,773

1,835

1,841

-3.4 %

0.3 %

-3.7 %

-3.7 %

Industry

144,114

115,491

155,268

24.8 %

29.6 %

-7.2 %

-7.2 %

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

3.1 %

6.0 %

3.1 %

-48.4 %

-0.5 %

Daimler

6.0 %

4.0 %

6.0 %

49.9 %

1.5 %

Ford

24.9 %

25.7 %

25.1 %

-3.1 %

-0.8 %

GM

16.9 %

12.5 %

20.5 %

35.3 %

-17.3 %

Honda

3.8 %

2.3 %

3.6 %

66.1 %

5.0 %

Hyundai

1.0 %

5.6 %

1.0 %

-82.3 %

-4.3 %

Kia

7.5 %

3.4 %

7.7 %

117.9 %

-2.7 %

Nissan

18.8 %

13.9 %

21.4 %

35.1 %

-12.4 %

Stellantis

17.9 %

10.3 %

18.2 %

73.5 %

-1.7 %

Subaru

3.2 %

1.6 %

3.3 %

96.7 %

-3.1 %

Tesla

6.1 %

0.0 %

6.1 %

0.0 %

Toyota

13.0 %

7.3 %

12.3 %

77.0 %

5.9 %

Volkswagen Group

3.3 %

3.3 %

3.6 %

1.4 %

-7.5 %

Industry

12.9 %

8.9 %

13.6 %

44.0 %

-5.1 %

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

BMW

2.7 %

2.2 %

2.5 %

Daimler

2.8 %

1.9 %

2.8 %

Ford

13.9 %

9.2 %

13.2 %

GM

16.3 %

15.3 %

17.4 %

Honda

6.1 %

10.5 %

6.2 %

Hyundai

5.4 %

5.7 %

5.9 %

Kia

5.5 %

5.4 %

5.7 %

Nissan

4.6 %

6.2 %

4.8 %

Stellantis

12.2 %

11.0 %

11.7 %

Subaru

3.7 %

3.9 %

3.8 %

Tesla

4.1 %

2.0 %

3.7 %

Toyota

14.8 %

17.5 %

14.7 %

Volkswagen Group

4.7 %

4.3 %

4.5 %

96.9 %

95.2 %

97.0 %

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

BMW

3.0 %

2.3 %

2.8 %

Daimler

3.0 %

2.0 %

3.1 %

Ford

12.0 %

7.5 %

11.4 %

GM

15.6 %

14.7 %

16.1 %

Honda

6.7 %

11.3 %

6.9 %

Hyundai

6.1 %

5.9 %

6.8 %

Kia

5.8 %

5.8 %

6.1 %

Nissan

4.3 %

5.9 %

4.4 %

Stellantis

11.5 %

10.8 %

11.1 %

Subaru

4.1 %

4.2 %

4.2 %

Tesla

4.5 %

2.2 %

4.1 %

Toyota

14.8 %

17.8 %

14.9 %

Volkswagen Group

5.3 %

4.6 %

5.0 %

96.7 %

95.0 %

96.8 %

ATP

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$63,548

$57,699

$64,685

10.1 %

-1.8 %

Daimler

$65,614

$64,427

$64,236

1.8 %

2.1 %

Ford

$53,865

$50,566

$52,475

6.5 %

2.6 %

GM

$51,079

$47,939

$50,519

6.6 %

1.1 %

Honda

$38,302

$32,972

$37,764

16.2 %

1.4 %

Hyundai

$36,510

$33,369

$37,640

9.4 %

-3.0 %

Kia

$35,231

$30,496

$35,697

15.5 %

-1.3 %

Nissan

$35,666

$32,828

$35,970

8.6 %

-0.8 %

Stellantis

$54,402

$49,189

$54,066

10.6 %

0.6 %

Subaru

$34,897

$33,767

$35,611

3.3 %

-2.0 %

Toyota

$40,970

$37,682

$40,765

8.7 %

0.5 %

Volkswagen Group

$44,701

$42,447

$45,706

5.3 %

-2.2 %

Industry

$45,352

$40,489

$45,364

12.0 %

0.0 %

$4,863

-$12

Incentives

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$1,193

$4,278

$1,130

-72.1 %

5.6 %

Daimler

$1,398

$3,625

$1,283

-61.4 %

9.0 %

Ford

$1,003

$2,417

$1,046

-58.5 %

-4.1 %

GM

$1,772

$3,345

$1,609

-47.0 %

10.1 %

Honda

$765

$2,064

$696

-62.9 %

9.9 %

Hyundai

$452

$1,664

$486

-72.8 %

-6.9 %

Kia

$541

$2,472

$582

-78.1 %

-7.0 %

Nissan

$1,118

$2,365

$1,177

-52.7 %

-5.0 %

Stellantis

$1,909

$2,963

$1,895

-35.6 %

0.8 %

Subaru

$701

$1,336

$763

-47.5 %

-8.1 %

Toyota

$759

$2,005

$753

-62.2 %

0.8 %

Volkswagen Group

$1,214

$2,902

$1,162

-58.2 %

4.5 %

Industry

$1,162

$2,536

$1,110

-54.2 %

4.7 %

-$1,374

$52

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

1.9 %

7.4 %

1.7 %

-74.7 %

7.5 %

Daimler

2.1 %

5.6 %

2.0 %

-62.1 %

6.7 %

Ford

1.9 %

4.8 %

2.0 %

-61.0 %

-6.6 %

GM

3.5 %

7.0 %

3.2 %

-50.3 %

8.9 %

Honda

2.0 %

6.3 %

1.8 %

-68.1 %

8.4 %

Hyundai

1.2 %

5.0 %

1.3 %

-75.2 %

-4.0 %

Kia

1.5 %

8.1 %

1.6 %

-81.1 %

-5.8 %

Nissan

3.1 %

7.2 %

3.3 %

-56.5 %

-4.2 %

Stellantis

3.5 %

6.0 %

3.5 %

-41.7 %

0.1 %

Subaru

2.0 %

4.0 %

2.1 %

-49.2 %

-6.2 %

Toyota

1.9 %

5.3 %

1.8 %

-65.2 %

0.3 %

Volkswagen Group

2.7 %

6.8 %

2.5 %

-60.3 %

6.8 %

Industry

2.6 %

6.3 %

2.4 %

-59.1 %

4.7 %

Revenue

Manufacturer

Jul 2022 Forecast

Jul 2021 Actual

Jun 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$50,780,980,394

$52,302,194,540

$51,931,220,369

-2.9 %

-2.2 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCarTrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedInFacebook or Twitter

SOURCE TrueCar.com

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